Opinion: Why Modi's Third Victory Is Unique Not Only In India But Also Globally

Narendra Modi is going to take oath as the Prime Minister of India for the third time on Sunday. This is an extraordinary event not only in India but in global democracy. He has not only equalled the record of the first Prime Minister, Jawahar Lal Nehru, but, as per a study, PM Modi is the only leader in the broader democratic world, post-World War II, who has been elected for a third consecutive term after completing the full tenure of each previous term and with a consistent vote share (this can be considered a mark of his popularity) in each election.

First, let’s talk about India. Till now, Nehru had been the only Prime Minister in India who got public confidence for the third consecutive time. Now, Narendra Modi is the second Prime Minister who has achieved this feat. But there is a big difference between the victory of Nehru and Modi. That is, while Nehru’s vote percentage decreased, Modi’s vote percentage remained almost intact.

Nehru won elections three times in a row in 1952, 1957 and 1962. Their vote percentage and seats increased in 1957 compared to 1952. In 1952, Nehru got 45% of the votes and 364 seats out of 489 Lok Sabha seats. In the next elections in 1957, Nehru won 47.8% votes and 371 seats out of 494. But after this, in the elections held in 1962, he won 44.7% votes and 361 seats out of 520 Lok Sabha seats. That is, in 1962, not only did their seats decrease but the vote percentage was also less than the votes received in 1952.

At the same time, under the leadership of Narendra Modi, the vote percentage received by BJP and NDA has remained intact. While in 2014 the NDA got 38.5% and the BJP 31.3% votes, in 2019 it increased to 44.9% and 37.7%, respectively. In this year’s elections, the NDA got 43.82% votes and the BJP got 36.6% votes. In 2014, out of 543 Lok Sabha seats, the NDA got 336 seats and the BJP got 282 seats. In 2019, this increased to 353 for the NDA and 303 for the BJP. In this election, the NDA has got 293 seats and the BJP has got 240.

Narendra Modi’s victory is also the biggest victory of any Indian leader since 1962. Meanwhile, in 1984, Congress under the leadership of Rajiv Gandhi got 49.1% votes and 414 out of 541 seats in the Lok Sabha. But it was the elections held immediately after the assassination of then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi where the sympathy wave benefited the Congress. In comparison, Narendra Modi is the only one on the agenda of good governance and development who has gained the trust of the public for the third consecutive time.

An International Record

Narendra Modi’s third consecutive victory is also an extraordinary record on the international stage. PM Narendra Modi is the only leader in the broader democratic world, post World War II, who has been elected for a third consecutive term, after completing the full tenure of each previous term and with a consistent vote share in each election.

Russia, North Korea, Iran, Iraq may call themselves democracies, but if we leave them aside and talk about Western Europe, Japan, North America (except Cuba), South America (only a few countries), South Africa, Israel and South Korea, then PM Modi’s victory has a different place among global leaders after the Second World War.

Country-Wise Analysis

There are very few leaders in the democratic world who have had the opportunity to win three or more consecutive elections after the Second World War. US President Franklin D. Roosevelt won four consecutive elections in 1932, 1936, 1940 and 1944. But all his victories were before World War II.

In Canada, Pierre Trudeau won three consecutive elections in 1968, 1972 and 1974. But he could not complete his second term. Trudeau won again in 1980. His son Justin Trudeau has also won the elections three times in a row in 2015, 2019 and 2021. But for the second time, his government could not complete its tenure.

Shinzo Abe won three consecutive elections in Japan. He achieved success in 2012, 2014 and 2017. Before this, he was also the Prime Minister in 2006-07. But none of his governments could complete their tenure.

Felipe González won four elections in Spain, in 1982, 1986, 1989 and 1993. But his vote percentage kept falling in every election.

In Britain, Margaret Thatcher won the elections three times in a row in 1979, 1983 and 1987. But none of his governments could complete their tenure and their vote percentage kept falling in every election.

Similarly, Tony Blair also won the elections in Britain three consecutive times in 1997, 2001 and 2005. But like Thatcher, none of his governments could complete their tenure and their vote percentages kept decreasing in every election.

Tage Fritjof Erlander won seven elections in Sweden. He won in 1948, 1952, 1956, 1958, 1960, 1964 and 1968. In the third one in 1956, his vote percentage dropped and was the lowest. However, it increased in subsequent elections and reached around 50% in 1968.

Jens Stoltenberg won three elections in Norway, in 2005, 2009 and 2013. But in the third election, his vote percentage dropped and was the lowest in the last two elections.

In Norway, Einar Gerhardsen won elections in 1945, 1949, 1957 and 1961, although there were breaks in between. In 1953, he did not lead the election as Prime Minister, hence he could not make the record of winning the elections three or more consecutive times.

In Australia, Robert Menzies won seven elections in 1949, 1951, 1954, 1955, 1958, 1961 and 1963. In between, he was also the Prime Minister in 1939-1941. But his first government could not complete its term and its vote percentage also dropped.

Again in Australia, John Howard won four elections in 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004. His first government could not complete its term and the vote percentage declined in the second election.

In Germany, Helmuth Kohl won four elections in 1982, 1987, 1990 and 1994. But his vote percentage kept falling continuously in every election. In Germany itself, Angela Merkel won four elections in 2005, 2009, 2013, 2017. But his vote percentage dropped in the second election.

Andreas Papandreou won three elections in Greece, in 1993, 1996 and 2000. But his vote percentage decreased in the second one.

In New Zealand, Sir Keith Holyoake won four elections, in 1960, 1963, 1966 and 1969. But his vote percentage dropped in the second and third ones.

Lee Kwan Yew won six elections in Singapore in 1968, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1988. But the vote percentage declined in the second, fourth and fifth terms. Goh Chok Tong won three elections in Singapore in 1991, 1997 and 2001. But his second term was short. Lee Hsien Loong won four elections in Singapore itself. He won in 2006, 2011, 2015, 2020. But the vote percentage declined in the second and fourth terms.

Thus, Narendra Modi’s achievement is extraordinary. It is also a shining example of India’s strong democracy and fair and transparent electoral process at the global level.

(Akhilesh Sharma is Executive Editor, NDTV)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author