Norway’s Sticky Core Inflation Cools Bets on Autumn Rate Cut

(Bloomberg) — Norway’s underlying inflation rate eased less than analysts expected for a second month in a row, damping the chances of an interest-rate cut by its central bank in the autumn.

The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as energy, declined to 4.1% in May, an almost two-year low, according to data from the statistics office on Monday. That’s above the 3.9% median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of analysts — mirroring the development in April — while Norges Bank’s projection was 4.2%.

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The outcome adds to evidence showing domestic inflation pressure in the fossil-fuel-rich Nordic nation remains high in comparison with most European peers. Contrasting with a recent strengthening of the krone, the data on prices doesn’t favor central bank easing in the near term, even as its peers in neighboring Sweden and in the euro area have already started reducing borrowing costs.

The report “confirms the underlying disinflationary tendencies,” said Kristoffer Kjaer Lomholt, head of FX and corporate research at Danske Bank A/S. It also “lowers the probability of a rate cut modestly for September,” he said.

The krone, the third-weakest performer this year in the G-10 sphere of major currency jurisdictions, strengthened 0.2% after the data to 11.5454 versus the euro at 8:39 a.m. in Oslo.

Still, headline inflation fell more than forecast to 3%, the lowest since July 2021. The decline was mainly due to lower electricity prices, as domestic water reservoirs doubled during the month and Europe’s gas reserves are well filled, the statistics office said.

In neighboring Denmark, consumer prices rose 2.2% in May from a year earlier, the highest rate since August and up from 0.8% in the previous month, Statistics Denmark said on Monday. Accelerating inflation was driven by price gains in electricity and rent, the agency said.

—With assistance from Joel Rinneby and Sanne Wass.

(Updates with analyst comment, Denmark data from fourth paragraph.)

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