Tuesday briefing: Canada puts India ‘on notice’ as row over alleged killing of Sikh activists escalates

Good morning.

In September 2023, Justin Trudeau stood up in parliament and made extraordinary allegations against the Indian government. The prime minister said Canadian authorities were investigating “credible allegations” about the potential involvement of Indian officials in the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian Sikh separatist activist in British Columbia.

India issued a furious response, dismissing the allegations as absurd and vehemently denying any involvement. The fallout was swift: diplomats were expelled from both countries and India suspended visa services for Canadian citizens for a month.

Now, the situation has further inflamed. Canadian police officials made even bigger accusations, accusing Indian diplomats and consular staff of participating in a criminal network run by a notorious Indian gangster. In a public inquiry, Trudeau said that Canada could not “accept this fundamental violation of its sovereignty”. And on Friday, Canada’s foreign minister put India’s remaining diplomats “on notice”, threatening expulsion if the country had indeed put Canadian lives at risk.

To untangle this complicated story, I spoke with the Guardian’s south Asia correspondent, Hannah Ellis-Petersen, about the many allegations levelled at India. That’s right after the headlines.

Five big stories

1. Middle East | Israel has accused Hezbollah of keeping hundreds of millions of dollars in cash and gold in a bunker under a hospital in the southern suburbs of Beirut, though it said it would not strike the complex. The Sahel hospital in Dahiyeh was evacuated shortly afterwards, and Fadi Alame, its director, told Reuters that the allegations were untrue.

2. Labour | A cross-party group of 30 MPs has urged Rachel Reeves to impose a 2% tax on wealth above £10m on Britain’s rich in next week’s budget rather than announce spending cuts that would hit the most poor hardest.

3. Ukraine | Britain is to lend Ukraine an additional £2.26bn and allow Kyiv to spend the money on weapons to fight off the Russian invasion as part of a wider $50bn (£38.5bn) loan programme expected to be confirmed by G7 members later this week.

4. Sudan | Refugees and aid agencies have warned of deteriorating conditions in overcrowded camps in Chad, as intensifying violence and a hunger crisis in Sudan drive huge numbers across the border. About 25,000 people – the vast majority women and children – crossed into eastern Chad in the first week of October. Read an explainer.

5. European Union | Moldovans have voted by a razor-thin majority in favour of joining the EU, nearly final results showed on Monday after a pivotal referendum clouded by allegations of Russian interference. With 50.18% supporting EU membership, the decision was much closer than pre-referendum polls suggested.

In depth: ‘There is a sense in India they can get away with this’

Canada is not the only country scrutinising potential involvement of the Indian government in crimes against dissidents. Last year, US investigators claimed that they foiled an alleged assassination attempt of an American Sikh activist, arranged by Indian government officials. The US justice department named Vikash Yadav as the spy that orchestrated the plot, while the US Drug Enforcement Administration accused Yadav of using “his position of authority and access to confidential information to direct the attempted assassination of an outspoken critic of the Indian government here on US soil”. And, earlier this year, a cross-party group of politicians in the UK requested an urgent meeting with then-security minister Tom Tugendhat after reports that “threat to life warnings” were being issued to British Sikhs.

What the Sikh activists allegedly targeted by the Indian government have in common is that they are part of the Khalistan movement, a separatist group that seeks to create a homeland in the north-western state of Punjab, where most of India’s Sikh population lives.

The movement gained traction in the 1970s and 80s, but largely dissipated domestically in the following decades. It is still considered a security threat by the government though, which is fearful that online groups run by separatists in Canada will stir up a resurgence within the Punjab region.

“The BJP believes that everyone should rally behind a uniform, singular nationalist identity of India so movements like the Khalistan movement have historically been seen as a huge threat to that nationalist project for the country,” Hannah says.

There are still pockets of support for the movement in the Sikh diaspora, particularly in Canada, which has the largest Sikh population outside India. Canada’s refusal to extradite the most vocal activists to India has long been a source of tension between the two countries, but Trudeau’s comments have now created a significant rupture in their diplomatic relationship. In the year since this row began, India has launched a vociferous campaign to paint Canada as a country that is harbouring terrorists and actors hostile to the Indian state.

Claims of a large Indian criminal network

Last week’s press statement by Canadian police is a significant escalation in the severity of the allegations. Previously, Indian diplomats were persons of interest in the killing of Nijjar (three Indian nationals were arrested for the killing). Now, Canada is alleging that Indian officials had been involved in a larger criminal network – run by gang leader Lawrence Bishnoi – that systematically harasses and intimidates those considered to be associated with the Khalistani movement. “They accused them of surveillance, targeted attacks, and most particularly of targeted killings of Canadian Sikhs,” Hannah says.

Trudeau said he recently spoke to India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, in Singapore, during a meeting with senior intelligence and national security officials from both countries, where Canadian officials presented intelligence and evidence in support of their claims. Nonetheless, India dismissed the evidence as erroneous, continuing to accuse the Canadian government of pursuing the allegations to garner political support from the country’s large Sikh community, and refusing to cooperate with what it views as a smear campaign.

Assassination allegations in the US

Just a few months after the murder of Nijjar, the US said it had thwarted a plot to assassinate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, an American and Canadian citizen and prominent Khalistani critic of Modi. Pannun was declared a terrorist by the Indian government in 2020 and is wanted in almost two dozen cases – he says all the charges against him are false.

In June 2023, Nikhil Gupta, an Indian citizen, attempted to pay a hitman $100,000 in cash to assassinate Pannun – without realising that the supposed hitman was actually an undercover federal agent. Gupta was allegedly instructed by Yadav, the supposed Indian spy. The indictment naming Yadav, which was unsealed last week, stated that Yadav was “employed by the government of India’s cabinet secretariat, which is a part of the Indian prime minister’s office”. The FBI director, Christopher Wray, issued a statement making clear that “the FBI will not tolerate acts of violence or other efforts to retaliate against those residing in the US for exercising their constitutionally protected rights”. India’s government confirmed that Yadav was no longer an employee.

The two cases are intricately linked because Gupta unwittingly told the undercover agent that Nijjar “was also a target” and that there are “so many targets”. Six days after Gupta told the undercover agent that Nijjar was a target, Nijjar was shot outside a gurdwara (a Sikh place of worship) in British Columbia. Gupta then allegedly received a video clip from the Indian official that showed Nijjar’s “bloody body slumped in his vehicle”.

Despite India’s complete refusal to cooperate with Canada, India is cooperating with the US. They have sent a team of investigators to look into the case and they have fired the state official that has been implicated in the crime, who they have said is a rogue agent.

“India is agreeing to comply with America in their investigation, while simultaneously completely denying any involvement in the Canadian one, even though they are so closely linked,” which seems contradictory, Hannah says.

These two cases, among other examples of surveillance and intimidation, are part of a wider pattern of “transnational repression,” she adds and mark a radical shift, ushered in under Modi, in the way Indian intelligence treats its critics who live abroad.

The diplomatic fallout

India has been laying the groundwork for years to be considered a political and economic superpower. “Other superpowers have behaved in this way in the past and have taken out those who they see as terrorists on foreign soil,” Hannah says. “And so there is, I think, this sense in India that, now that they have that type of strength behind them and they have much stronger relationships with these countries, they can also get away with this.”

But covert operations such as these are usually more sophisticated. If India is found guilty of organising Pannun’s assassination, it made some shockingly clumsy decisions and left behind quite a trail.

Despite the allegations of extrajudicial violence on foreign soil, the US continues to insist that its relationship with India is not in jeopardy. The two countries are continuing to sign mutually beneficial agreements and deals. India understands that it occupies a uniquely powerful position: for the US, its growth and size offers a critical counterbalance to China. The indictment of Yadav signals, though, that the US is not willing to give India carte blanche.

And, crucially, India will struggle to alienate Canada indefinitely because of Canada’s strong and historic ties with the US and the UK. Both countries are pressuring India to cooperate with Canada’s investigations.

Even in the case of criminal prosecution, any material repercussions are likely to be limited – the government will simply distance itself from the individuals who are implicated and claim that they were lone actors. At worst, India might be viewed as more of a rogue nation than before.

Hannah says: “Ultimately, you just have to look elsewhere to see what the precedent is for these kinds of crimes.” She adds that while the US found Saudi Arabia to be responsible for the murder of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi, it was “quite happy to resume that relationship and seemingly turn a blind eye to what is essentially an extrajudicial killing,” Hannah says. “India knows this.”

What else we’ve been reading

• Zoe Williams has written a supremely enjoyable primer on Rivals, the new Disney adaptation of the Jilly Cooper classic, and how it somehow engenders nostalgia for the 80s: “Can you imagine anyone in a Jilly Cooper novel who had to get up early? They’d be a laughing stock.” Archie

• As the Cop16 conference kicks off in Colombia, Phoebe Weston speaks with experts about the “danger zone” the world has entered in the global biodiversity crisis. Nimo

• As more federal civil lawsuits are filed against Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs, Ben Beaumont-Thomas pulls together a timeline that lays out the charges and allegations brought against Combs, which include but are not limited to sex trafficking, rape, racketeering and kidnap. Nimo

• Oliver Laughland was at Elon Musk’s surreal – and possibly illegal – $1m US election giveaway. His dispatch is not a very optimistic read, but it’s excellent. Archie

• The Metropolitan police officer Martyn Blake who shot in the head Chris Kaba, a 24-year-old unarmed suspect, has been acquitted of murder. Vikram Dodd lays out what happened in the 13 seconds before Kaba was shot and unpacks the questions that have once again risen about police use of deadly force. Nimo

Sport

Premier League | Dean Henderson allowed Chris Wood’s speculative shot to slip through his grasp to hand Nottingham Forest a 1-0 victory over Crystal Palace.

Football | Uefa’s communication with disabled supporters has been widely described as “nonexistent” in a survey that paints a damning picture of accessibility for fans watching their clubs on European away trips. More than half of fans said the accessibility of stadiums was poor, very poor, or nonexistent.

Cricket | When his England replacement Shoaib Bashir took five wickets against the West Indies in July, Jack Leach might have thought his Test career was over – but now he is back in the team and preparing for a series decider against Pakistan where he could play a key role. A call from Ben Stokes on the day of Bashir’s success helps, Leach tells Simon Burnton: “I felt really happy and proud … He just wanted to tell me how great I was.”

The front pages